Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
