Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
